The labor market just mailed in a shrug. U.S. employers added only 29,000 jobs in September — far below the ~84,000 Wall Street expected — while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, CNBC and NPR reported.
Revisions made the soft patch look worse: August was cut to +133,000 and July flipped to a −10,000 loss — 60,000 fewer jobs than previously counted. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% on the month and 3.0% year over year, the slowest annual wage gain since May 2021.
Markets read it as a rate-hike pause signal. CME FedWatch odds that the Fed holds at its Oct. 27–28 meeting jumped to about 83%. Jefferies’ Thomas Simons called the print “the nail in the coffin for an October hike.” Gains clustered in health care (+17,000), construction (+11,000), and manufacturing (+9,000); government employment fell 17,000.
The household survey told a different story — employment up 406,000 as the labor force swelled 485,000 and participation hit 61.8% — but the establishment tally still landed as Friday’s gut-punch number. Soft jobs, sticky inflation debate, midterms ahead.
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