If you were hoping this was the weekend to finally lock a mortgage, the bond market has bad news.
The rate. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed mortgage was 7.40% for the week ending Oct. 15, unchanged from the week before. A year ago it was 6.27%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, down slightly from 6.73%. Realtor.com calls it a three-year high.
Blame the 10-year. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, and that yield is still above 5%. WSJ market data shows it closed Friday, Oct. 16, at 5.085%. It closed at 5.237% on Oct. 9, so the bond market rallied this week. TreasuryBonds.com reported weekly yield drops of 5 to 16 basis points across maturities. The 52-week high is 5.368%, set Oct. 7. Rates have barely backed off that peak.
Inflation is the problem. September CPI came in at 3.7%, up from 3.4% and above forecasts. Core CPI rose to 2.6% from 2.4%, a sign that price pressure is spreading beyond gas. Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu said the core reading “reinforces the case for another rate hike by December and could set the stage for additional hikes in early 2027.” Realtor.com puts the federal funds rate at 3.75%–4% after September’s hike. Friday’s jump in oil to nearly $110 doesn’t help.
What it’s doing to housing. According to Realtor.com:
- Pending home sales plunged in September as buyers backed off.
- The share of listings with price cuts hit a four-year high in September.
- For-sale inventory grew nearly 7% from a year ago, the fastest growth since February. Senior economist Anthony Smith says that’s unsold homes piling up, not a wave of new sellers.
- New listings fell 5.1% year over year.
- The median asking price slipped 2.3% to $415,000.
The upside, if you can find one: motivated sellers are negotiating. Xu’s advice is to “rate-proof” your budget so you’re ready when the right house shows up.
For now, buyers are stuck with high rates, and so are sellers who don’t want to give up the cheap mortgage they already have. Until inflation cools, the vise stays tight.
Sources: Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40% · Realtor.com: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3-Year High · WSJ: U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note market data · TreasuryBonds.com: Treasuries End the Week Higher, But Oil Made Friday a Fight
Featured image: editorial illustration by Bugle Blast.
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